Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped to less than 10% of pre-conflict levels, according to data released this week. That's down from 20 million barrels per day last year — roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now projects Middle East production shut-ins will average 7.5 million barrels per day in March and peak at 9.1 million in April, driving a 5.1 million barrel-per-day global inventory draw in the second quarter. Brent crude is expected to average $115 per barrel in Q2 2026.
Emergency reserves tapped, demand curbed
The IEA coordinated the largest emergency stock release in history — 400 million barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve alone authorized 172 million barrels for release, with delivery expected within about 120 days. Eight major economies have already imposed demand-side measures. Sri Lanka rolled out QR-based fuel rationing. South Korea introduced odd-even driving restrictions. India tightened LPG and fuel controls. Pakistan mandated remote work. Japan subsidized a fuel-price cap. Germany adjusted fuel-tax rules. China set refined-oil price controls. The U.K. launched heating-oil support.
Bitcoin hovers near a critical zone
Bitcoin traded around $80,794 on May 12, with total crypto market capitalization at $2.69 trillion and Bitcoin dominance at 60%. The $78,000–$80,000 range is shaping up as a key battleground — one that could determine whether markets interpret the oil shock as a stagflation-driven liquidity squeeze or a policy-accommodation opportunity. So far, the broader macro storm hasn't scared digital asset investors away.
Digital asset inflows keep climbing
Digital asset products recorded $117 million in net inflows last week — the fifth consecutive positive week. Bitcoin products led with $192 million in inflows. Ethereum products, however, saw $81.6 million in outflows. The divergence suggests investors are rotating toward Bitcoin as a perceived safe haven within crypto, even as the energy crisis rattles traditional commodities.
The key question ahead
With Brent crude expected to average $115 this quarter and the Strait of Hormuz still largely shut, the pressure on central banks to act — or not act — will intensify. For crypto, the next few weeks will test whether the $78k–$80k band holds as a floor or breaks under the weight of a real-world supply shock.
