Strategy Inc., the corporate Bitcoin holder formerly known as MicroStrategy, is facing fresh scrutiny over its concentrated crypto strategy as a prediction market assigns a 43.5% probability that its stock will reach $100 by the end of 2026. The company, which has accumulated roughly $18 billion in Bitcoin over the past six years, has seen its shares trade well below that threshold for most of this year.
Why the yield question keeps coming up
Critics have long argued that Strategy's model — issuing convertible debt and equity to buy more Bitcoin — creates a fragile loop. When BTC rallies, the stock soars and the company can raise more capital. But when the market turns, the same leverage works in reverse. This year's choppy price action has renewed those concerns. The company's Bitcoin yield, a metric it uses to measure BTC-per-share growth, has slowed as dilution from stock offerings eats into gains. Some analysts have started asking whether the strategy can still deliver the outsized returns it once did.
What the prediction market says
A decentralized prediction market on the Polymarket platform now shows a 43.5% probability that STRC will hit $100 by December 31. That's up from about 30% a month ago, but still far from a sure thing. The market has been active, with over $2.3 million in volume on the contract. Traders are effectively betting that either Bitcoin rallies hard in the second half of the year or that Strategy finds another catalyst — a new product, a dividend, or a buyback — to close the gap.
The company's next earnings call, expected in early August, will be a key moment. Investors will be watching for any change in tone from executive chairman Michael Saylor, who has remained publicly bullish on Bitcoin despite the scrutiny. A softer stance on dilution or a hint of portfolio diversification could shift sentiment quickly. For now, the prediction market suggests the market sees a real — but far from certain — path to $100 by New Year's Eve.
