Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, now holds over 818,000 Bitcoin — but that stash came at a painful accounting cost. The firm reported a net loss of $12.54 billion for the quarter, driven primarily by a $14.46 billion unrealized decline in Bitcoin's fair value. Despite the red ink, Strategy hasn't slowed down. It added roughly 145,000 Bitcoin in the first five months of 2026, spending an estimated $11 billion, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.
The Q1 numbers
The writedown is enormous, but it's also largely non-cash. Strategy uses fair-value accounting for its crypto holdings, meaning quarterly swings in Bitcoin's price hit the income statement directly. Bitcoin's drop from late-2025 highs clobbered the balance sheet. Still, the company generated enough cash and debt capacity to keep buying — and it did. Strategy re-accelerated purchases in April, shifting to what JPMorgan analysts described as a more opportunistic buying pattern.
Analyst outlook
Wall Street is paying more attention to the buying than the accounting loss. TD Cowen raised its price target for MSTR from $385 to $395. Canaccord Genuity's Joseph Vafi went further, bumping his target from $185 to $224 on May 7, while maintaining a Buy rating. The catch: MSTR traded at $179 at the time of reporting, well below even the lower target. JPMorgan analysts project Strategy could buy up to $30 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2026 — that would exceed the combined $22 billion it acquired in 2024 and 2025.
Bitcoin price assumptions
All these targets depend heavily on where Bitcoin goes next. Strategy's own base case forecasts Bitcoin reaching $140,000 by the end of 2026. Its upside scenario puts the price at $175,000. Those numbers would dramatically reduce the unrealized losses and flip the narrative. But Bitcoin hasn't cooperated so far this year, and the writedown shows how fast that can change.
Buying pattern shift
Strategy's approach has evolved. After a steady accumulation in 2024 and 2025, the company got more aggressive this spring. JPMorgan noted the shift to opportunistic buying — meaning Strategy is likely trying to scoop up coins during dips. That's a higher-risk, higher-reward play. If Bitcoin recovers, the timing will look brilliant. If it doesn't, the balance sheet gets heavier. The stock's current $179 price suggests the market isn't betting on a quick recovery yet.
Next up: Strategy's next public filing will show whether the April buying spree continued into May. With the analyst targets sitting far above the current share price, the gap between Street optimism and market reality remains wide.
