TD Cowen raised its price target on MicroStrategy (MSTR) to $400 a share, betting that the company's massive Bitcoin stash and recent financial restructuring will pay off. The new target arrives as the stock trades near $166, down roughly 60% from its 52-week peak above $450.
The Bitcoin pile
MicroStrategy now holds 843,738 Bitcoin, valued at roughly $64 billion. That's more than 4% of the total supply cap. The firm's Bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares climbed to 2.21 from 1.95 at the end of 2023 — a sign the company is adding coins faster than it's diluting shareholders.
Balance sheet moves
The company raised $1.95 billion through a preferred equity issuance in the second quarter of 2024, using the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. Around the same time, it repurchased $1.5 billion in convertible notes at a discount, trimming refinancing risk. Those moves give MicroStrategy more breathing room to keep stacking coins without triggering a debt crunch.
The earnings picture
TD Cowen projects Bitcoin-related gains exceeding $15 billion for MicroStrategy in 2026. That number would dwarf the company's net income from its legacy software business. The analyst's report also referenced a prior projection that MicroStrategy would acquire roughly 100,000 BTC in the second quarter of 2024 — a target that, if hit, would have added significantly to the current count.
What the target implies
A $400 price target suggests roughly 140% upside from today's level. But the stock is still nursing a steep decline from its 52-week high above $450, and the gap between the analyst's optimism and the market's current valuation is wide. Whether MicroStrategy can close that gap will depend on Bitcoin's next move — and the company's ability to keep adding coins without overextending its balance sheet.
TD Cowen's note didn't provide a timeline for the new target. The firm is scheduled to publish its next quarterly update on the stock in late June.
