TD Cowen is warning that the CFTC's stopgap crypto framework could fall apart before its 2028 completion date. In a note this week, the investment bank said the temporary rulebook is exposed to political changes that might delay or sink it outright — leaving US crypto firms without a settled set of rules to work from.
The framework was always meant to be a bridge, not a permanent home. Now the bridge itself looks shaky.
Why TD Cowen is worried
The bank's concern isn't about the substance of the rules. It's about the calendar. The CFTC is operating under interim guidance while it works toward a fuller regime, and that work has to survive whatever happens in Washington between now and 2028. A change in leadership, a shift in congressional priorities, or a prolonged budget fight could each knock the timeline off course.
TD Cowen's view is that the longer the interim framework sits in place, the more likely it becomes a political football. And a framework that gets punted around is one that market participants can't rely on.
What instability would mean for crypto firms
For exchanges, brokers, and token issuers trying to stay on the right side of US regulators, a temporary framework is workable only if it lasts long enough to build around. If the completion date slips past 2028 — or if the whole thing gets rewritten by a future commission — firms lose the one thing compliance teams need most: predictability.
That shows up in practical ways. Product launches get shelved. Legal budgets balloon. Some firms may simply wait out the uncertainty rather than commit to a US footprint. TD Cowen's warning is a signal that those decisions are already being made with the interim nature of the framework in mind.
A framework with an expiration problem
The CFTC's approach has been to give the industry something to work with now while a more durable rulebook takes shape. The problem, as TD Cowen frames it, is that the word "temporary" carries real market risk. Rules that might not survive the next election cycle don't function the same way as rules that will.
There's no indication the CFTC has abandoned its 2028 target. But TD Cowen's note makes clear that hitting it depends on factors the agency doesn't control. Political shifts are the obvious one. So is the simple reality that regulatory timelines slip all the time, especially when the underlying policy is contested.
What to watch from here
The next checkpoint is whether the CFTC publishes a more detailed roadmap for completing the framework before 2028. Absent that, TD Cowen's warning stands: the runway is getting shorter, and the political weather isn't improving.
For now, crypto firms operating under the interim rules have to plan as if the ground could move. That's an uncomfortable place to be, and it's the specific risk TD Cowen is flagging.
