TON, the native token of The Open Network, has a 70% probability of testing the $1.34 support level within the next ten days, according to current technical indicators. The setup shows clear distribution — a phase where sellers dominate by distributing tokens to willing buyers. The relative strength index is oversold, but that has not triggered any meaningful rally. Negative funding rates on perpetual swaps and the positioning of large holders, or whales, are reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Distribution and the missing bounce
When an asset enters distribution, it typically prints lower highs and lower lows. That is exactly what TON's price chart shows. Oversold conditions would normally attract dip buyers, but the buying has been insufficient to reverse the trend. The failure of a relief rally to materialize is a textbook bearish signal. It suggests that sellers are still in control and that any upward moves are quickly sold into. The distribution pattern has been building over several trading sessions, with each attempt to rally meeting fresh selling pressure. Each bounce is capped by a descending trendline, reinforcing the downward bias.
Negative funding and whale wallets
Funding rates on perpetual futures contracts are negative, meaning short sellers are paying long position holders. That cost indicates that the majority of traders expect the price to decline further. Negative funding has persisted for consecutive days, a sign that the bearish conviction is not just a fleeting moment. At the same time, whale wallets — accounts holding large amounts of TON — have been adjusting their allocations in ways that suggest they are preparing for additional downside. Whale behavior is closely monitored because their trades can amplify price moves. The combination of negative funding and whale positioning creates a consistent bearish signal from the derivatives market.
What the 70% probability tells traders
Probability estimates in technical analysis are based on the frequency of similar patterns and current momentum readings. A 70% likelihood over a ten-day window is a strong signal. It does not guarantee a test, but it gives market participants a concrete level to monitor. The $1.34 support has been a key area in the past. A test does not mean a break, but repeated selling pressure can weaken that zone over time. If the price holds above $1.34, it could become a base for a potential recovery. If it breaks, the next support levels are not defined by the available data. The ten-day window is relatively short, meaning the move could happen quickly if selling accelerates. A sudden drop to $1.34 could trigger stop-loss orders and increase volatility.
The $1.34 level has acted as both support and resistance in past trading sessions. Its importance increases with each test. Many traders place orders around that price, which adds to its significance. Whether the level holds or breaks will depend on whether the selling momentum continues or if buyers step in at that price.
For now, the technical picture remains firmly bearish. Traders will watch daily closes around $1.34 over the next ten days. The probability of a test is high, but the outcome will determine the next direction for TON.
