TON is trading below its 20-day moving average with momentum flat, while futures traders holding long positions are paying a carry cost of 0.35% per 8-hour period. The persistent funding rate suggests that bullish bets are expensive to maintain, and the token's price has struggled to gain upward traction.
The carry cost dynamic
Perpetual futures contracts on TON are currently charging longs a funding rate of 0.35% every eight hours. That means a trader with a $10,000 long position pays roughly $35 every eight hours to keep the trade open. Over a full day, the cost adds up to about $105, or 1.05% of the position size. Such a structure typically indicates that the majority of open interest is on the long side, and the market is paying longs to offset the imbalance. But here, the cost is being paid by longs, not shorts, which puts additional pressure on bullish traders to either close their positions or see their returns eroded.
The token itself is trading below its 20-day moving average, a short-term trend indicator. When price sits below this level, it often signals weak near-term momentum. Combined with the negative carry for longs, the setup suggests that buyers are not confident enough to push the price higher despite the cost they are incurring.
Support levels and potential squeeze
If the 200-day simple moving average at $1.55 holds as support, a short squeeze could develop. A squeeze occurs when a rapid price increase forces short sellers to cover their positions, adding further upward pressure. In this scenario, TON could rally toward $1.67, a level that has acted as resistance in recent trading.
The 200-day SMA is a widely watched long-term trend line. A break below it would signal a bearish shift, while a bounce from it could attract buyers looking for a value entry. The carry cost, however, remains a headwind for any sustained rally unless the funding rate flips negative, which would reward longs instead of charging them.
For now, the market is waiting to see whether the $1.55 support holds. If it does, the path to $1.67 opens up. If it fails, the next support levels are unclear from the available data.
