The Open Network’s native token, TON, is trading at $1.60 with little upward momentum, even as the futures market shows a heavy concentration of long positions. That imbalance, combined with a wall of resistance overhead, has analysts pointing to a 65% probability of a long squeeze that could push the price down to $1.48.
Crowded Longs and Resistance Overhead
Data from major derivatives exchanges reveals a crowded long-side futures book. Typically, when too many traders are betting on a price increase without corresponding buying pressure, the market becomes vulnerable to a correction. In TON’s case, every meaningful moving average sits above the current price as resistance, reinforcing the bearish technical setup. The token has been unable to break through these levels despite occasional buying attempts.
Squeeze Probability and Downside Target
Based on the current positioning and overhead supply, the analysis assigns a 65% probability that a long squeeze will unfold, targeting $1.48. That level represents a roughly 7.5% drop from the current $1.60. A long squeeze occurs when a price decline forces leveraged long holders to liquidate, accelerating the move lower. The crowded long side makes TON particularly susceptible to such a cascade.
The $1.48 target is derived from the concentration of liquidation levels below the current price. If the squeeze materializes, it could flush out weak hands and reset the market before any potential recovery.
Whether buyers step in to defend the $1.60 level or the squeeze plays out remains the open question. No major catalyst is on the immediate horizon to shift the technical picture.
