Toncoin (TON) is stuck at $1.60, trading below every meaningful moving average as momentum flatlines. The setup points to a likely flush lower, with a price drop to the $1.52–$1.55 range carrying a 60%+ probability, according to market data.
Flat momentum and trapped longs
The token's price action shows no clear directional push. It sits under key moving averages, a bearish technical signal. At the same time, futures markets hold a cluster of long positions that are now underwater. These trapped longs create a familiar risk: if the price dips further, forced liquidations could accelerate the decline.
What the data says
Current readings put the odds of a move to $1.52–$1.55 at better than 60%. That range represents a zone where the next support level sits. A flush to that area would likely clear out the overhang of leveraged longs, potentially setting up a more sustainable base. But until that happens, the market remains in a fragile equilibrium.
Traders are watching for a break below $1.60. If it comes, the path to $1.52–$1.55 opens quickly. A bounce from that zone could attract fresh buying, but the immediate bias is cautious. No catalyst has emerged to reverse the current drift.
