Toncoin slid 4.4% over the past day to trade at $1.96, extending a recent pullback. But beneath the red candle, whale positioning tells a different story: 63% of large holders are betting on the long side, a lopsided ratio that often precedes a squeeze.
What the whale data shows
Data from on-chain tracking platforms put the long share among Toncoin whales at 63% as of Wednesday morning. That means the biggest wallets are collectively leaning bullish even as the token sheds value. Such a concentrated long position can act as a double-edged sword — it signals conviction, but also raises the risk of a liquidation cascade if the price keeps falling. For now, the whales are holding.
Technical picture points to $2.20
On the charts, Toncoin has been bouncing along a support zone near $1.90 over the past week. The 4.4% drop pushed it toward the lower end of that range, but technical indicators — including the RSI and MACD — are flashing oversold readings that historically preceded recoveries. Analysts following the token point to $2.20 as the next key resistance. That level marks a roughly 12% climb from current prices and lines up with a prior consolidation area from early March.
The path to $2.20 isn't guaranteed. The broader crypto market remains choppy, and Toncoin has struggled to hold gains above $2.10 in recent sessions. If the whale long positions are wrong and sellers step in, the token could test the $1.80 support floor.
For now, the data suggests traders are positioning for a rebound. The question is whether the broader market will cooperate. Until Bitcoin or the broader crypto market finds a clear direction, Toncoin's next move may hinge on whether that $2.20 level gets tested in the coming sessions.
