The Open Network’s native token, TON, is flashing an extreme overbought signal that has historically preceded sharp pullbacks. Trading at $2.73 on Thursday, the asset’s Relative Strength Index hit 93.28 — a level that in most technical setups suggests buying pressure has been exhausted. Meanwhile, the MACD momentum indicator has flatlined, removing the bullish divergence that had supported the recent rally.
What the RSI reading means
An RSI above 70 is typically considered overbought. At 93.28, TON is in territory where traders often take profits or open short positions. The last time the token printed a reading this high, it corrected more than 15% within 48 hours. The current setup carries similar risk: with no fresh catalyst to sustain buying, the path of least resistance is lower.
Stalled MACD and fading momentum
The MACD — a trend-following momentum indicator — has converged to the point where the signal line and the MACD line are nearly touching. This flattening indicates that the upward move has run out of steam. Without a new wave of volume or a bullish crossover, the trend is vulnerable to reversal. Technical analysts often interpret a stalled MACD after a sharp rally as a sell signal.
Correction probability and key support
Based on the combined overbought RSI and the MACD stall, there is a 70% probability that TON will correct toward the $2.44 support level before any sustainable rally can form. That support sits roughly 10.6% below the current price. If $2.44 fails to hold, the next support is near $2.20, though the facts do not assign a probability to that deeper move.
What traders are watching next
The immediate question is whether the $2.73 level can attract enough buyers to prevent the slide. Volume data from the past six hours shows declining participation, which typically confirms a weakening trend. If TON closes below $2.65 in the next session, the move toward $2.44 could accelerate. No date or event is on the calendar that would change the technical picture in the short term.
