A pseudonymous trader who sold Bitcoin at the cycle top in 2024 is now warning the bear market could drag prices as low as $28,500 – a 77% plunge from the record high. The call, made months ago via the trader's Bear Bands indicator, is drawing fresh attention as the predicted bottom window approaches.
CryptoCon's timeline
The trader, known as CryptoCon, first outlined his thesis in 2024 after exiting near the peak. His intermediate bear target sits at $44,500, a level he expected between August and October 2024. The ultimate cycle bottom, he said, would land between November 2026 and January 2027 at $28,500.
That final target is now less than five months away. If it hits, a Bitcoin bought at the all-time high would lose more than three-quarters of its value.
The 2024 drop that started it
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 on June 5, 2024 – the first time it had done so in over a year. At the time, prices sat around $61,850, down 2% in a day and 15% over the prior week. That slide gave CryptoCon's bear case early validation, though the market later recovered before turning lower again.
SpaceX IPO as a potential catalyst
In his original analysis, CryptoCon pointed to the imminent IPO of SpaceX as a possible trigger for the downturn. The connection remains unverified and the rocket company's public listing never materialized on the timeline some expected. But the trader's broader argument – that Bitcoin was overshooting on sentiment and needed a deep reset – has aged better than many bull forecasts.
Whether $28,500 becomes reality or just another line on a chart will be clear by the end of January. For now, the countdown is on.
