Tron's native token TRX is showing signs of a near-term pullback. The relative strength index (RSI) has climbed to 78.39, a level that typically indicates an asset is overbought. Adding to the caution is a bearish divergence on the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator. Together, these readings suggest an 11% drop toward $0.32 could be on the horizon.
Overbought Territory and Divergence
The RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. A reading above 70 is generally considered overbought, meaning the asset may be due for a correction. At 78.39, TRX is well into that zone. The bearish MACD divergence — where price makes a higher high but the MACD line makes a lower high — further reinforces the selling pressure building beneath the surface.
Technical analysts watch these signals closely. When both the RSI and MACD flash warning signs at the same time, the probability of a reversal increases. In TRX's case, the last time a similar setup appeared, the token lost roughly 12% over the following week.
The Alternative Scenario: A Push to $0.40
Not every overbought reading leads straight to a sell-off. If aggressive buying pressure continues, TRX could first rally to $0.40 before the correction kicks in. That would represent a gain of about 11% from current levels before the anticipated drop to $0.32.
Such a move would catch short-term momentum traders on both sides — those who buy the breakout and those who wait for the pullback. The key level to watch is $0.40. If buyers can push through that resistance, the correction might be delayed but not canceled. If they fail, the slide could start sooner.
Tron's broader market context matters too. The cryptocurrency has been in an uptrend for the past several weeks, but momentum is starting to wane. Volume data has not shown a corresponding increase during the latest price rise, another clue that the rally may be running out of steam.
Investors holding TRX will be watching the next few trading sessions closely. A break below $0.35 would likely confirm the bearish signal and accelerate selling. Conversely, a sustained move above $0.40 would invalidate the divergence and open the door to further gains.
