TRON's native token TRX is expected to drop to $0.29 before recoving to $0.40 by the end of the year, according to technical signals and market positioning. The immediate slide looks inevitable as large traders have built heavy short positions, but the same data points to an oversold bounce once selling exhausts itself.
Why the short-term slide is priced in
Market positioning shows that what traders call “smart money” is heavily short on TRX, making the drop to $0.29 the base case in the near term. The technical setup on the token's charts supports that view — the token has been losing ground without the typical buying support that would slow a decline. Shorts are betting that the selling pressure has room to run before any meaningful reversal can start.
For now, the $0.29 level is seen as the next major support. If it fails, there's nothing in the immediate price structure to stop a deeper move, but the data doesn't suggest that scenario is the one being traded.
The path back to $0.40
The same analysis that points to the drop also builds a case for recovery. Once the selling wave is over — a point known as exhaustion — the token's oversold condition is expected to trigger a bounce. The rebound target sits at $0.40, which would represent a gain of roughly 30% from the projected low.
That recovery isn't automatic. It depends on shorts covering their positions and new buyers stepping in near $0.29. If support holds and volume picks up, the move higher could happen relatively quickly. If it doesn't, traders will have to re-evaluate.
The $0.40 year-end target is conditional. For now, market participants are watching to see whether TRX can stabilize around $0.29 and whether the short-side bets begin to unwind. Until that happens, the path of least resistance remains lower.
