President Donald Trump is pushing for the federal government to take control over prediction markets, arguing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission should have sole regulatory authority. The statement, posted on Truth Social, adds pressure on operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, which are already facing legal scrutiny.
Why Trump wants the CFTC in charge
Trump’s call for exclusive CFTC authority signals a desire to centralize oversight of prediction markets, which have grown rapidly in recent years. These markets let users bet on events like election outcomes or economic data. Without a single federal regulator, oversight has been patchy—some platforms operate under state gambling laws, while others claim exemption as commodities trading. Trump’s position would put the CFTC firmly in the driver’s seat, potentially clearing up jurisdictional fights.
The companies in the crosshairs
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two most prominent prediction market platforms currently under legal pressure. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, has faced questions about whether its contracts meet agency standards. Polymarket, built on blockchain technology, has drawn attention from regulators for allowing users to trade on events like the 2024 presidential election without traditional oversight. Trump’s statement doesn’t name them directly, but it aligns with a broader push to rein in the industry.
Next steps for regulators and operators
The CFTC has not yet responded to Trump’s call. The agency’s current chair, Rostin Behnam, has previously signaled concern about unregulated prediction markets but stopped short of endorsing exclusive authority. Meanwhile, Kalshi and Polymarket continue to operate as their legal cases wind through the courts. No legislation has been proposed yet, but Trump’s statement could spur action in Congress—or at least force the CFTC to clarify its stance. For now, the industry waits to see whether the president’s push will translate into concrete rules.
