A Trump-backed ethics rule now prohibits federal officials from issuing cryptocurrencies or tokens, according to the directive's text. The move targets potential conflicts of interest as digital asset projects proliferate inside government circles. Separately, a prediction market shows just a 2.1% probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026.
What the rule says
The directive bars any federal employee from creating, promoting, or distributing a cryptocurrency or token while in office. It applies to both elected officials and career staff. Violations could trigger ethics investigations or forfeiture of any profits from such projects. The rule doesn't ban officials from owning crypto, only from issuing new tokens themselves.
This isn't the first time Trump has waded into crypto ethics. During his previous term, his administration pushed for clearer conflict-of-interest rules around digital assets. But this specific prohibition — targeting issuance by officials — is new.
What the market thinks
On Polymarket, bettors put the chance of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by the end of 2026 at just 2.1%. That's a long shot by any measure. The prediction market has been active on Bitcoin price targets all year, with most contracts showing low confidence in six-figure prices before 2027.
The low probability reflects persistent headwinds: regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic pressure, and the hangover from last year's market downturn. Even the most bullish analysts aren't forecasting a quick return to all-time highs, let alone a tripling from current levels.
Still, prediction markets have been wrong before. In early 2024, similar contracts gave Bitcoin a 5% chance of breaking $70,000 — and it did. But the current 2.1% figure suggests traders see the path to $200,000 as narrow and unlikely within six months.
The ethics rule closes a loophole that could have let officials profit from their positions by launching tokens. It also sends a signal to the broader crypto industry: even pro-crypto politicians are drawing lines. For Bitcoin, the prediction market odds are a reality check — but they're not a forecast. The next few months will test whether the market can defy the probabilities.
