President Trump is set to host executives from Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz, Ripple, Chainlink, Kalshi, Paradigm and the Digital Chamber at the White House on August 19. SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig are expected to be in the room. The meeting comes as the CLARITY Act, the long-gestating market-structure bill, sees its odds of passing this year drop sharply.
A White House guest list
The guest list spans the industry: exchanges, investment firms, protocol teams and a prediction market. The presence of the two top regulators suggests the conversation will touch on the regulatory path forward. It also gives the industry a chance to press its case on the CLARITY Act directly.
Odds fade
Polymarket traders now put the chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at about 19%. That's down from a peak of 82% on February 19. Galaxy Digital estimates just a 10% chance of passage this year. The bill did clear the Senate Banking Committee on a 15-9 vote in May, and the House approved its version, H.R. 3633, by 294-134 in July 2025 — a sign of bipartisan support that has since frayed. But the momentum has stalled.
Sticking points
Negotiations have deteriorated over three issues: restrictions on crypto activities by senior government officials, limits on stablecoin rewards, and protections against illicit finance. Banks have lobbied hard to restrict stablecoin rewards, warning that yield-bearing products could pull deposits out of the traditional system. The biggest obstacle, though, is the ethics dispute surrounding Trump's own crypto ventures. A bipartisan group of senators sent the White House a proposed ethics framework on July 30. The administration has not publicly agreed to it.
A tight Senate calendar
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed before the August recess, setting up a test when the Senate returns on September 14. But the chamber is only expected to be in session for about three weeks before leaving around October 2 for midterm campaigning. That leaves little room for a bill that still has unresolved disputes. Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC are pushing forward with their own rulemakings under existing law, including the SEC's Reg Crypto framework and an Innovation Exemption. Progress has been uneven — an August 14 vote on the crypto-offering proposal was canceled without a new date.
Whether the White House meeting produces a breakthrough on the ethics framework — or just another photo op — remains the open question. The Senate's clock is ticking.
