Donald Trump’s crypto business interests are gumming up the works for the Clarity Act in the Senate. The bill, which would set federal rules for digital assets, now has just a 33.5% chance of becoming law this year, according to a prediction market. That’s down from earlier estimates, and the reason is increasingly tied to the former president’s own ventures.
The odds keep slipping
Prediction market traders aren’t betting on the Clarity Act passing in 2026. The 33.5% probability reflects a steady decline over recent weeks. The bill was once seen as a bipartisan compromise, but its path has narrowed. Some senators are wary of handing Trump a win — or, worse, a conflict-of-interest headache — given his active role in crypto projects.
Trump’s crypto footprint
Trump has launched multiple NFT collections and a decentralized finance platform since leaving office. Those ventures have made him a direct stakeholder in the regulatory outcome. Critics argue that advancing the Clarity Act could be seen as legitimizing or even benefiting his businesses. That’s created a political logjam. Key lawmakers who might otherwise support the bill are now hesitant to bring it to a vote.
What’s next for the bill
The Senate is expected to return from recess in early September. The Clarity Act could be taken up then, but the window is tight. With the 2026 midterm elections looming, legislative time is scarce. The prediction market odds suggest the bill’s supporters have an uphill climb. If it doesn’t pass this year, the whole process resets — and Trump’s ventures will still be there, waiting.
