Tron’s TRX token slid to $0.32 on Monday, trapped in a bearish compression pattern that traders say could drive it as low as $0.30 in the coming weeks. The cryptocurrency is now trading below both its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, a technical setup that historically signals sustained downside momentum.
Trading below key moving averages
TRX has been unable to reclaim either the 20-day or 50-day SMA, both of which act as overhead resistance. The token’s price action has compressed into a tight range, a pattern that often precedes a sharp move. Current data shows that smart money positions are net short on TRX, meaning larger, more informed traders are betting against a recovery.
Smart money turns short
While retail sentiment remains mixed, the positioning of so-called smart money — institutional or high-volume accounts — points to a negative outlook. Net short positions on TRX have increased over the past week, aligning with the technical breakdown. This divergence between retail hope and professional caution may fuel further selling if the token fails to break above key resistance levels.
The $0.30 floor and the $0.35 ceiling
Analysts tracking the pattern see two clear paths. The more likely base case, based on the 30-day prediction, is a continued decline toward the $0.30–$0.31 range, specifically the 200-day SMA, which often acts as a major support zone. The alternative scenario is a breakout above $0.35, which would invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a short squeeze.
For now, the path of least resistance appears lower. TRX has not shown the volume needed to push through $0.35, and the moving averages are sloping downward. A flush to $0.30 would represent a roughly 6% drop from the current price, but traders note that the compression pattern could accelerate the move if selling picks up.
The coming days will be telling: either the token finds a floor at the 200-day SMA and begins to base, or it breaks below that level, opening the door to deeper losses. The smart money is already positioned for the latter.
