Tron's native token TRX is holding steady above the $0.34 support level, a zone that traders have been watching closely for weeks. Technical indicators are now flashing a potentially bullish signal: a MACD divergence that could push the token 14% higher to $0.40. But there's a twist — more than half of top traders are betting against that move.
Why the $0.34 Level Matters
The $0.34 mark has acted as a floor for TRX since early March, with the token bouncing off it multiple times. Each test has held, suggesting strong buying interest at that price. For now, consolidation above support is keeping the short-term outlook neutral to positive. A break below could open the door to deeper losses, but the market hasn't seen that yet.
MACD Divergence: What It Signals
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is showing a bullish divergence on the daily chart. That means price made a lower low while the MACD line made a higher low — often a precursor to an upward reversal. If the pattern plays out, TRX could target the $0.40 resistance area, representing roughly 14% upside from current levels. Divergence trades aren't guarantees, but they've historically been reliable in trending markets.
The Short Trader Paradox
Despite the bullish technical setup, 57% of top traders on major exchanges are holding short positions on TRX, according to exchange data. That's a heavy imbalance — most of the big money is betting the token will drop. Shorts can create a squeeze if the price moves up, forcing them to buy back and amplifying gains. But they can also act as overhead resistance if traders pile on. The split between chart signals and trader sentiment leaves the near-term direction uncertain.
The next few days will be key. If TRX can break above the $0.36 resistance zone — the top of its recent consolidation range — the path to $0.40 becomes clearer. A failure to hold $0.34 would invalidate the bullish divergence and likely trigger a wave of stop-losses. Traders are watching both levels closely. The $0.40 target remains on the table, but it depends on whether the shorts get proven wrong or the support gives way.
