Tron's TRX is hovering near $0.32, just 25% below its all-time high of $0.43 from December 2024. That makes it one of the best-performing large-cap tokens in a market where Bitcoin sits 51% under its record high, Ethereum is 67% off its peak, and Solana is down 78%. Over the past week, TRX slipped less than 4%.
The technical picture
On the weekly chart, TRX is trading inside an ascending triangle with horizontal resistance near $0.365 and a rising trendline that dates back to mid-July 2024. A three-drives pattern has formed within that triangle — a well-known reversal or continuation formation that, in this case, projects a possible resolution around mid-August 2026.
The daily chart adds another layer. TRX has been moving inside a rising parallel channel since November 2025, with support at $0.32 (the 0.5 Fibonacci level) and $0.31 (0.382). The daily RSI has dropped to a long-term support trendline at the edge of bearish territory. That's a setup that could go either way, but the RSI line has held before.
What the on-chain data shows
Active addresses on the Tron network have trended higher from about 2 million to 3 million since mid-2024. After a dip in April 2026, they've surged back above 3 million. That's real usage growth — not just price speculation.
Meanwhile, exchange net position change has turned negative across all major exchanges. That means more coins are leaving trading platforms than arriving. The largest inflow spike on record landed near the December 2024 high, when sellers moved coins to exchanges. Now the flow is reversed.
A supply squeeze in the making?
Falling exchange balances reduce the supply available for quick selling. If demand returns — and the uptick in active addresses suggests it might — that could tighten conditions pretty quickly. The resistance at $0.365 remains the key level to watch. A clean break above it, especially with volume, would open the path back toward the all-time high.
The next scheduled event on the Tron calendar is a network upgrade expected in late June, though details are still sparse. Whether that adds momentum or not, the on-chain data is telling a story of accumulation. The market will see if that story holds through the summer.
