The US military has conducted its 12th consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, according to US Central Command, which released footage of the latest operations. The sustained campaign comes as prediction markets show growing odds that the region's airspace will be fully closed by late summer.
Airstrikes Continue Unabated
US Central Command confirmed the 12th straight night of airstrikes and shared video of the missions. The footage, released without specific target details, underscores the intensity of the ongoing campaign. The strikes have now run for nearly two weeks without a reported pause.
Prediction Markets Signal Rising Risk
On Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, traders currently see a 41.5% chance that Iran's airspace will be completely closed by July 31. That probability jumps to 59.5% by August 31. The numbers reflect growing uncertainty about how long the current military operations can continue without triggering a broader shutdown of the region's skies.
What a Full Airspace Closure Would Mean
A full closure would ground commercial flights and disrupt travel across the Middle East. Airlines have already rerouted some flights in recent weeks, but a complete shutdown would be a far more severe step. The prediction market's odds suggest traders see it as a real possibility within the next two months.
The US has not announced any timeline for ending the airstrikes. The next key date is July 31, when the market's 41.5% probability will either be validated or rendered obsolete.
