VanEck's head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, projected Tuesday that Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin, arguing the rally is being driven by short covering and broad macroeconomic forces rather than speculative froth. Speaking on CNBC's Halftime Report, Sigel said the digital asset would need to climb more than 12-fold from its press time price of $81,042, but he called that path cyclical and warned of significant volatility along the way.
Why Sigel sees room to run
Sigel compared Bitcoin's adoption trajectory to that of the video game industry, noting that usage now spans all age groups. The key driver, he said, is that Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq has hit its highest level in five years — a sign the rally is tied to broader market trends, not just crypto-native hype. He also pointed to the derivatives market, which he described as showing no sign of froth, suggesting the move higher is being fueled primarily by short covering. In his telling, market positioning remains relatively bearish, leaving room for further upside as shorts unwind.
Company of seven-figure targets
Sigel's projection puts VanEck in a small but growing camp of institutional voices calling for a seven-figure Bitcoin. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan and Jan3 CEO Samson Mow have also issued targets north of $1 million, though they use different frameworks. Sigel didn't detail VanEck's specific model but said a continued rise remains the firm's base-case scenario.
A five-year timeline — with a volatility warning
The VanEck executive said the $1 million milestone could be achieved within about five years. But he was blunt about the ride: “No bailouts in Bitcoin,” he said, pointing to the asset’s history of sharp drawdowns. The warning lands at a moment when the broader crypto market is already jittery — Bitcoin has bounced around $80,000 for weeks, and traders are watching for the next catalyst.
What’s next
Sigel’s interview adds a fresh data point to the debate over how high Bitcoin can go in this cycle. The next concrete test: whether the short-covering dynamic he described can sustain itself if macro conditions — interest rates, regulation, or equity volatility — shift. No specific date was given for the next VanEck update, but the firm is expected to release its quarterly crypto outlook later this month.
