Bitcoin may be nearing one of its strongest buying setups in years, according to Weiss Crypto. Senior analyst Juan Villaverde argues a near-term pullback could ultimately confirm the end of the ongoing bear market — a bear that's already been unusually shallow. At press time, BTC traded at $72,043.
What the models show
Villaverde's macro, liquidity and cycle models all point to short-term downside, but within a broader constructive picture. The February low, tracked since last year, was followed by a rally that was weaker than expected. He began buying Bitcoin in late January because the market was already close to the projected cycle window. Now, he's looking for a dip to solidify the bottom.
Why the rally stalled
Two big factors kept Bitcoin from running higher. First, geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz involving Iran disrupted the liquidity and bond-market signals that had pointed toward a $90,000–$100,000 Bitcoin. Second, the failure of the Clarity Act Senate vote to generate any breakout added to the drag. “The weight of evidence remains tilted toward downside,” Villaverde said in the report.
Where Bitcoin could go next
Villaverde isn't calling for a crash to $50,000. The correction, he says, is happening inside a changed regime, not a collapse. The bond-market model, which looks 13 months ahead, suggests the February low should hold. The liquidity model, with a 12-week lookahead, points to a low in June or July and then a prospective rally. A move toward $60,000 could happen without breaking the bullish structure; $65,000–$66,000 is more likely if buyers want to preserve a higher low.
Villaverde's options play
He's not just talking — he's positioning. Villaverde said he's selling calls near $80,000 and planning to sell puts around $70,000, $65,000 or even $60,000. That tells you he sees limited upside in the near term but wants to own more Bitcoin at a discount. The strategy leans into the idea that this bear market may be the most shallow in crypto history, propped up by institutional demand.
The next concrete sign to watch is whether Bitcoin indeed makes that June–July low Villaverde's liquidity model forecasts. If it does, and if the pullback stops short of $60,000, his plan to sell puts will kick in. If not, he's still holding the calls and waiting.
