The World Cup betting frenzy on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi generated $5.57 billion in cumulative volume on champion contracts. But a new analysis shows the vast majority of traders ended up losing money.
A Small Group Captured Most of the Winnings
Analysis of 194,422 Polymarket addresses found that 66.7% finished in the red. Over 114,000 addresses lost less than $100, averaging $9.34 each. Meanwhile, nearly 58,000 profitable addresses earned an average of just $4.85. The real action was at the extremes: 43 addresses lost more than $100,000 each, totaling $15.19 million — an average loss of about $353,000. Those 43 addresses represented just 0.02% of the sample but accounted for roughly 40% of the $37.63 million in total losses. On the winning side, 54 addresses earned more than $100,000 each, averaging about $413,000 in profit. They collected $22.3 million, almost 60% of all positive returns. Five accounts — asparagus2012, Allezpapa, yamal19, thesingularityisnear, and wco26 — each earned more than $1 million.
Prediction Markets' Share of Sports Betting Surged
The data underscores how quickly prediction markets have grown. According to H2 Gambling Capital, these platforms accounted for about 27% of legal US sports-betting volume during the World Cup, up from about 9% at the beginning of the year. Polymarket alone handled $4.28 billion in World Cup champion contracts, while Kalshi recorded $1.29 billion.
Kyle Sonlin, President and Co-Founder of Global Settlement Network, said the concentration of returns shows how quickly information, technology, and capital advantages can concentrate returns among a small group.
Institutional Players Eye Bigger Bets
The trend isn't limited to retail traders. Dragonfly general partner Rob Hadick said businesses are exploring large trades tied to policy and regulatory outcomes. One regional e-commerce company, he noted, is considering using World Cup contracts for inventory planning. Hadick also mentioned that some proposed block trades linked to legislative and regulatory exposure had reached nine figures, though those details were not independently verified.
The shift suggests prediction markets are moving beyond sports into areas like corporate strategy and political forecasting. Whether the concentration of profits will deter smaller traders — or attract more of them — remains an open question.
