Stellar's XLM is trading at $0.16, sitting below every major moving average and flashing clear bearish momentum. The base case scenario now points to a price flush toward $0.14, with a 60% probability attached to that move. But beneath the technical weakness, a growing long bias from so-called smart money is keeping some traders from writing off the token entirely.
Why the technicals look so weak
XLM hasn't been able to hold above any of its key moving averages, a setup that typically signals sellers are in control. The token's price action has been grinding lower, and the moving averages are now acting as resistance rather than support. For traders who rely on trend-following signals, the picture is straightforward: the path of least resistance is down.
That's why the base case calls for a drop to $0.14. The probability sits at 60%, meaning it's the most likely outcome over the near term. A flush to that level would represent a fresh low for the recent trading range and could trigger another wave of stop-loss selling.
The $0.14 flush scenario
If XLM does slide to $0.14, it won't be a surprise to anyone watching the charts. The token has been losing altitude for weeks, and the moving averages have been sloping downward. A break below the current $0.16 level would open the door to the next support zone, which is where the $0.14 target comes in.
But a flush isn't guaranteed. The 60% probability leaves room for other outcomes, and that's where the smart money angle gets interesting.
Smart money's contrarian bet
Despite the bearish technical setup, there's a growing long bias from smart money. That's a notable divergence. While retail traders might be looking at the moving averages and shorting, larger or more informed players appear to be positioning for a bounce. The data doesn't say why, but the bias is there.
This kind of divergence can sometimes mark a turning point. If smart money is accumulating while price is falling, it could mean the selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. But it's not a signal to jump in blindly—the technicals still point lower, and the base case remains a flush to $0.14.
What could flip the trend
The key level to watch is $0.17. If XLM can reclaim that price, the outlook changes quickly. The price prediction includes a bounce target of $0.18 if $0.17 is reclaimed. That's a modest gain from current levels, but it would represent a shift in momentum and could attract more buyers.
For now, the market is stuck between a bearish chart and a bullish undercurrent. The next move likely depends on whether XLM can hold above $0.16 or breaks down toward $0.14. Traders will be watching the $0.17 level closely—a reclaim there could trigger the bounce, while a failure to hold $0.16 likely sends the token lower.
