XRP price plunged 5% to around $1.12 on Friday after Israeli military attacks in southern Lebanon postponed critical talks between the Trump administration and Iran. The attacks jeopardized the Trump-Iran deal aimed at de-escalating hostilities and stabilizing oil routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Iran immediately halted its 60-day negotiation framework with the US, accusing Washington of violating the first clause of the recently signed memorandum of understanding.
What sparked the sell-off
The timing couldn't be worse for a market already on edge. Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon forced Vice President JD Vance to postpone his planned trip to Switzerland for US-Iran talks. Iranian officials claimed the attacks violated the MOU's first clause, and they've now walked away from the negotiating table. Oil prices reacted with renewed volatility on supply chain concerns — the derailed deal had been a key factor in calming crude markets, and its collapse reopens questions about safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The broader crypto market felt the heat. Bitcoin and Ethereum both faced downward pressure amid heightened global uncertainty. For XRP, the 24-hour range was tight — between $1.13 and $1.18 — but the break below $1.15 was the first time the token has traded that low in weeks.
Market reaction so far
Technical analysts note repeated rejections near $1.15 to $1.20, with some forecasting a potential revisit to key support zones. More than 30 million XRP have been distributed by whales in the last five days — a signal that large holders are reducing exposure or repositioning ahead of potential further downside. The Ripple Fear & Greed Index now reflects caution among on-chain metrics and community sentiment.
It's not all bearish. XRP fundamentals remain solid: transaction finality in 3-5 seconds, low costs, and growing adoption in cross-border payments. Spot ETF inflows have reached nearly $1 billion in assets under management, suggesting institutional demand hasn't vanished — just paused.
What to watch next
Future price direction depends entirely on diplomatic outcomes in the Middle East. A renewed calm could lift XRP toward $1.20 or higher. Prolonged conflict could deepen the downturn. Traders are watching for any signs of a return to the negotiating table, with oil price movements serving as a proxy for geopolitical risk. There's no scheduled date for resumption of US-Iran talks yet — and until there is, XRP's recovery looks tied to events far beyond the crypto markets.
