XRP fell below $1.10 for the first time since November 2024, losing 22% over the past 30 days. But while retail sentiment sours, whales are piling in — the number of addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP hit a record 332,230 in May and kept climbing through the drawdown. That divergence sets up a tense wait for the Senate, where the CLARITY Act could shift the token's trajectory.
Technical picture: all major averages broken
Market analyst Sam Daodu notes XRP now trades below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages — a broadly bearish setup. Support sits around $1.05 and the psychological $1 mark, but Daodu warns another 40% drop to $0.70 isn't out of the question if the risk-off mood deepens. Monthly RSI has entered the oversold reset zone for only the fourth time in 13 years; each previous reset preceded a major reversal, though past performance doesn't guarantee a repeat.
Whale activity: record holders, growing concentration
The number of wallets holding 1 million XRP or more added a net 42 new addresses since January, the first increase in millionaire wallets since September 2025. Whales with at least 10 million XRP now control 45.83 billion tokens — 68.5% of circulating supply, the highest concentration since May 2018. On Binance, whale outflow dominance hit 91.4%, the highest since 2024. A similar reading in October 2024 preceded a rally from roughly $0.50 to above $3.
CLARITY Act in focus as Senate floor vote approaches
The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 and landed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. A floor vote before the August recess is the next concrete hurdle. Standard Chartered sees two divergent paths: if the CLARITY Act passes and macro conditions stabilize, XRP could hit $2.80, with an upside range up to $8. If the legislation stalls until 2030 or beyond, the bank forecasts a retreat toward $0.53.
Whether XRP stays above $1 depends on two things: Bitcoin reclaiming and consolidating above $60,000, and the Senate actually bringing the CLARITY Act to a vote. The summer recess deadline looms. If neither materializes, the $0.70 test becomes more than a worst-case scenario.
