XRP has broken below its key moving averages, sending the token toward a support zone between $1.20 and $1.25. The slide comes as selling pressure mounts across crypto markets, but on-chain data suggests a potential reversal may be brewing.
Technical breakdown
The move below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages marks a clear shift in short-term momentum. XRP had been trading above those levels for weeks, but the breakdown accelerated late this week. The next major floor sits at the $1.20–$1.25 range, an area that has historically attracted buyers and held firm during previous pullbacks.
Volume picked up during the drop, confirming the bearish breakout. Traders are now watching whether that support zone can absorb the selling or if further downside is in store.
Whale activity picks up
While retail investors may be nervous, large holders appear to be doing the opposite. Data shows whale wallets have been accumulating XRP during this decline, a pattern that often precedes a price bounce. The accumulation isn't small — wallets holding at least 1 million XRP have added to their positions over the past three days.
That kind of buying from big players doesn't guarantee a rally, but it does suggest they see value at these lower levels. When whales accumulate during oversold conditions, the odds of a snapback increase.
Oversold conditions and bounce probability
The relative strength index (RSI) on daily charts has dipped into oversold territory, a technical signal that prices have fallen too far too fast. Historically, oversold readings on XRP have led to rebounds within two weeks about two-thirds of the time.
Combine that with the whale accumulation, and analysts see a 65% probability that XRP bounces to $1.50 within the next 14 days. That doesn't mean it's a sure thing — the broader market mood and any negative headlines could easily derail that scenario. But the setup is there.
The key question now is whether the $1.20–$1.25 support holds. If it doesn't, the next stop could be the $1.00 area, a level not seen since early March. If it does, expect a quick grind back toward $1.50 as shorts get squeezed and dip buyers step in.
XRP traders are bracing for a volatile week. The next few sessions will tell whether the whales are right or the bears are in control.
