XRP's 12-hour chart has flashed a head and shoulders pattern, a classic bearish reversal setup, with neckline support sitting near $1.10. A clean break below that level would confirm the pattern and project a drop to around $0.96 — roughly 14.5% lower than the neckline. The token traded near $1.13 on Friday, just under the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.14.
The head and shoulders setup
The pattern formed over recent sessions, and technical traders are watching the $1.10 neckline as a critical line in the sand. The head and shoulders is a well-known reversal formation: a peak (the head) flanked by two smaller peaks (shoulders), with support drawn across the lows between them. A breakdown below that support is taken as a bearish signal. In XRP's case, the measured move from the neckline points to $0.96. If that level breaks, the next supports lower down are $1.04, then $0.96 itself, and finally $0.89.
On the bullish side, XRP needs to reclaim $1.14, then clear $1.17, and eventually push above $1.29 to invalidate the pattern entirely. That’s a tall order from current prices.
Long-term holders add to positions
Despite the bearish chart, long-term XRP holders — defined as addresses that have held coins for at least 155 days — have been quietly accumulating. Their net position rose from about 258.95 million XRP on June 19 to roughly 264.25 million by June 21, a roughly 2% increase. That bump suggests a degree of conviction among investors who aren’t shaken by short-term technicals.
Thin support zone near the neckline
Cost-basis data paints a mixed picture. Around 56.2 million XRP were last moved near the current price of $1.13, creating a modest cluster of holders. But the zone between $1.10 and $1.11 holds only about 24.6 million XRP — a relatively thin layer of supply. That thinness means a break below $1.10 could happen quickly if sellers step in, since there’s less buying interest to absorb the drop.
Key levels to watch
For now, $1.10 is the level that matters. If it holds, XRP could attempt to push back above the 0.618 Fibonacci line and challenge $1.17. If it breaks, the pattern's target at $0.96 becomes the next major milestone. The bullish invalidation point — the level that would kill the bearish setup — sits at $1.29, a price XRP hasn't touched in weeks.
