XRP slid about 3% on Friday after the U.S. Senate postponed a vote on the CLARITY Act until September. The delay rekindled a seasonal pattern that has dogged the token during midterm election years — and one analyst says the current dip fits that script.
Senate punts on CLARITY Act
The vote was pushed into September, according to journalist Eleanor Terrett, who reported mixed sentiment across the crypto industry in the aftermath. Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone said the industry would keep working to secure enough support for a successful vote after the recess. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan struck a more measured tone, arguing that failing to pass the bill before recess would likely weigh on sentiment in the near term, but that clearer expectations could leave the market better positioned later in the year.
August's midterm curse
ChartNerd, an analyst active on X, wrote that XRP was "already bleeding" after the news. Historical data backs that up: XRP posted negative August returns in every U.S. midterm year — -5.7% in 2014, -23.0% in 2018, and -13.7% in 2022, averaging a drop of about 14%. ChartNerd noted "Weak hands are selling today" and that Bitcoin and Ethereum hadn't seen similar selling, warning XRP could face more downside before conditions improve. The current weakness, they argued, fits the historical pattern and doesn't represent any new development.
ChartNerd's bigger picture
Despite the near-term gloom, ChartNerd sees a larger structure: a cup-and-handle formation stretching back more than eight years, with possible long-term targets at $8, $13, and $27. That optimism comes with a caveat, though — they acknowledged XRP could spend much of the rest of the year consolidating around the $1 level before any sustained recovery.
Waiting on the SEC
Hougan also noted that regulatory action from the SEC could still provide guidance even if the legislation is delayed. Meanwhile, CoinGecko data showed XRP trading at around $1.02, down 3.0% in 24 hours and nearly 6% across the week, with trading volume up 14% to about $1.33 billion. The broader market was slightly weaker, with total market cap down 0.6%, BTC around $64,000, and Ethereum close to $1,900. The Senate returns from recess in September, and the CLARITY Act vote will be a key test. Until then, XRP holders might be in for more chop.
