XRP is trading just above $1.13 after a mild pullback, keeping a bullish chart structure intact even as institutional interest shows signs of fading. The token has formed a cup-and-handle pattern since early July, with the handle taking shape since July 21. Volume has thinned during the recent slide, suggesting the move lower is a pause rather than a fresh wave of selling.
Cup-and-handle pattern still in play
The cup pattern began forming in early July, and the handle has been developing since July 21. A decisive daily close above $1.15 — the 0.618 Fibonacci level — would confirm the breakout. Resistance sits at $1.15, then $1.16, $1.18, and $1.21. On the downside, support is at $1.13, $1.12, and $1.09. A drop below $1.05 would invalidate the cup formation entirely. XRP has a history of failed cup patterns, so traders are watching for a strong close above that key level before calling the breakout real.
Institutional demand cooling
While the chart looks promising, the flow of money into XRP exchange-traded funds tells a different story. Monthly ETF inflows hit $81.59 million in April, peaked at $131.94 million in May, then fell to $59.46 million in June. So far in July, only $12.43 million has come in. That's a sharp drop from the peak, and it suggests institutional buyers are stepping back.
The Hodler Net Position Change metric — which tracks whether long-term holders are accumulating or distributing — peaked on June 22 and then fell into July 1, coinciding with XRP's price correction from $1.13 to $1.05. Since July 19, the metric has turned lower again, moving from roughly 231 million XRP to about 226 million XRP. That means holders are slowly reducing their positions, adding to the cautious tone.
What the tension means
The bullish chart pattern is still alive, but the weakening institutional demand and holder behavior create a real tension. If the price can push through $1.13 and then $1.15 on rising volume, the pattern would gain credibility. But if the selling picks up and XRP slips below $1.05, the cup would be broken and the technical picture would shift bearish.
For now, the market is waiting. A decisive close above $1.15 would be the first real signal that the bulls are back in control. Without that, the pullback could turn into something more serious.
