XRP closed at $1.0665 on Tuesday, down a fraction of a percent, after trading in a tight range between $1.0608 and $1.0925. The token remains stuck below the $1.14 resistance level, with traders watching for a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve that could push it higher.
Neutral RSI, Flat Moving Averages
The relative strength index sits at 50, squarely in neutral territory. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are flat around $1.10, offering little directional bias. The lack of momentum has kept XRP in a narrow band for weeks.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support is clustered between $1.00 and $1.05. A break below that could send the token toward $0.80, the last major accumulation zone from early 2026. On the upside, resistance stands at $1.14, then $1.20, and finally the prior cycle high near $2.00.
Standard Chartered's Revised Target
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick has set a year-end target of $2.80 for XRP, down from an earlier call of $8. The revision reflects a more cautious outlook on crypto markets, though the target still implies roughly 160% upside from current levels.
Polymarket Odds and the Bear Case
Polymarket traders are pricing 70% odds that the Fed will signal a dovish stance by month end. If the central bank disappoints, XRP could drop to $0.80, according to the bear case outlined by some market participants. That level marks the last major accumulation zone from early 2026.
Price History and ETF Launches
XRP peaked near $3.65 in July 2025, then suffered a sharp break in October 2025 from above $2.60 to below $1.80. The token subsequently compressed between $1.30 and $1.60 before breaking lower in June to $1.05. It bounced to $1.14 and has since returned to $1.06. Seven US spot XRP ETFs have launched since late 2025, adding institutional access but failing to reignite a rally so far.
Meanwhile, the LiquidChain presale is ongoing at $0.01454, though its connection to XRP's near-term price action remains unclear.
The next major catalyst is the Fed's policy signal. If it comes in dovish, XRP could test $1.14 and possibly $1.20. If not, the $1.00 support level will be the line in the sand.
