XRP closed its best third quarter in four years, gaining 48% even as it remains 59% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. The rally was fueled by heavy exchange outflows and record inflows into new US spot XRP ETFs, but a trio of October events could test the token's momentum.
ETF inflows and shrinking exchange balances
US spot XRP ETFs now hold roughly 1.16 billion XRP, worth about $1.76 billion, with cumulative net inflows reaching a record near $1.68 billion. Daily inflows peaked near 22 million XRP in late August and around 20 million on September 24.
At the same time, Glassnode data shows exchange balances fell from about 12.9 billion to 11 billion tokens since April 2026. Roughly 1.6 billion XRP left exchanges in the last two weeks. The largest outflows arrived during the late-September pullback, and similar outflows preceded the August breakout, when XRP jumped from $1.00 to above $1.50 two days later.
Large holders reportedly accumulated 470 million XRP in five days last week. Binance's XRP scarcity index recently fell to its lowest level since January 2025.
Technical setup: triangle on the four-hour chart
On the weekly chart, XRP broke the descending trendline that had capped price since the July 2025 peak, confirmed by a high-volume August candle. The weekly RSI also broke its own downtrend and sits near 55, above the midline.
XRP holds support between $1.47 and $1.50. The 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.70 rejected price in August and again near $1.66 in September. On the four-hour chart, a mature symmetrical triangle shows trendlines converging around October 3, 2026. Resistance sits at $1.59, with support at $1.47 and $1.38. The four-hour RSI reads a neutral 47, while lower highs hint at selling pressure.
A breakout from the triangle could target $1.83, about 23% above the $1.49 lower boundary. A breakdown could send XRP toward $1.17, the 0.786 Fibonacci level, roughly 21% lower.
October's triple threat: Fed, escrow, and Swell
Markets are pricing up to a 64% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting. The same week, Ripple hosts its Swell conference in New York from October 27 to 29.
Before that, on October 1, Ripple can release up to 1 billion XRP from escrow. Historically, October has been weak for XRP, with an average loss of 5.14% and lower closes in both 2024 and 2025. Q4 strength usually arrives later, with median returns of 80% in November and 63% in December.
The CLARITY Act failed a Senate vote 49 to 50 on September 15, 2026, leaving regulatory clarity unresolved.
What to watch
Until Swell and the Fed decision in October's final week, XRP may range between $1.47 and $1.70. A weekly close above $1.70 could set up November, while a break below $1.47 would put the $1.38 support in play. The October 1 escrow release and the October 3 triangle convergence are the first tests.
