XRP is trading above $1.40, but its derivatives market is sending a quiet signal. The token's estimated leverage ratio on Binance has fallen to about 0.1 — a level last seen in late October 2024, when XRP was worth just $0.50. That divergence between low leverage and elevated price has caught the attention of traders watching for a sharp move.
Leverage at a historic low
Binance's estimated leverage ratio for XRP measures how much borrowed money traders are using relative to their positions. A ratio of 0.1 is historically low. The last time it touched that mark, XRP was trading near 50 cents. Now the token is nearly three times that price, yet the market is hardly leveraged at all. That gap — low leverage, high price — is unusual.
A pattern from mid-2025
Between late June and mid-July of this year, a similar divergence played out. XRP was trading around $1.96, and the leverage ratio sat below 0.3. Over the next four weeks, the ratio climbed to just under 0.6, and the price surged to $3.65 — a jump of more than 86%. The pattern suggests that when leverage returns to a market that has been under-positioned, the move can be violent. Analysts following the data see the current setup as a possible repeat.
Two paths forward
The derivatives data points to an under-positioned market. If leverage starts to flow back in, XRP could see a sharp expansion move to the upside. That's the squeeze scenario. But there's another outcome. The divergence could resolve on the downside, with the price falling to the $1.00–$1.10 range. That would bring price back in line with the low leverage environment without triggering a squeeze. Still, passive short exposure carries asymmetric risk — if the squeeze does happen, short sellers could get crushed.
For now, XRP sits in a tight band with low volume. The market is waiting for a catalyst. Whether that catalyst is a return of borrowed money or a selloff remains the open question.
