XRP needs to close above $1.51 to confirm a breakout from a months-long falling wedge pattern, according to analyst Matt Hughes. The cryptocurrency has dropped about 60% since its July 2025 peak of $3.66 and now trades near $1.37. A break above the wedge's upper boundary would signal a potential reversal, but previous attempts have failed.
The Falling Wedge Pattern
Since July 2025, XRP's weekly chart has formed a falling wedge — a technical pattern that often precedes an upside move when price breaks above the upper trendline. That line currently sits around $1.50-$1.51. XRP has not yet closed cleanly above it, leaving the pattern unconfirmed.
The wedge's upper boundary has acted as resistance for months. Hughes said the $1.51 level is the key threshold for a breakout. If XRP can push past it with volume, the pattern suggests a rally could follow.
Failed Breakout Attempts
This isn't the first time XRP has tested the wedge's ceiling. A move near $3 in late 2025 fizzled out. Then in January 2026, another attempt stalled at $2.41. Both failed to hold above the trendline. Those rejections deepened the wedge and extended the downtrend.
Each failure reinforced the resistance. Traders watch for a clean close above $1.51 to differentiate a real breakout from another fakeout. Without that, the pattern remains a bearish continuation.
The Predicted Shakeout
Analyst MichaelXBT expects a shakeout this week — May 2026 — that could flush out weak holders before any breakout. That kind of move often shakes confidence, sending price down briefly before a sharp reversal. If the shakeout holds above key support, it could set the stage for a test of $1.51.
The shakeout prediction adds uncertainty in the short term. A drop might spook traders, but if it's followed by a quick recovery above $1.51, the pattern would gain credibility. If price fails to recover, the wedge could break down instead.
What's at Stake?
A confirmed breakout above $1.51 would open the door to higher levels. The falling wedge's measured move targets a run toward the July 2025 high of $3.66. But first, XRP has to close above that upper boundary — something it hasn't done in nearly a year.
The next few days will be telling. If MichaelXBT's shakeout plays out and XRP reclaims $1.51, bulls might get their chance. If not, the wedge deepens, and the wait continues.
