XRP jumped about 15% overnight to trade near $1.15, reclaiming the $1 level that had become a psychological battleground for the token. The rally has reignited a sharp disagreement between two Elliott Wave analysts who see very different paths ahead.
Two wave counts, two destinations
Analyst Dark Defender argues the move confirms a completed 'triple dip' on the weekly chart, with Elliott Wave targets of $5.8563 and $9.0362. In that view, the current rally is the start of a much larger Wave 5 advance. Resistance sits at roughly $1.20–$1.30, then $1.50, and finally $1.88.
Holding $1 is critical, Dark Defender says. A close below it would undercut the entire Wave 5 premise.
A week earlier, though, analyst CasiTrades published a different Elliott Wave count. That projection saw a bottom near $0.95, a corrective bounce to $1.00–$1.04, and then a final leg down toward $0.85–$0.86. CasiTrades cited an RSI reading of 36.62 with a bearish divergence pattern as evidence for more downside.
The two counts conflict sharply. One says XRP is about to explode higher; the other says the rally is a dead-cat bounce before another drop.
What the ledger shows about trading hours
Separately, Evernorth's August 18 disclosure offers a different kind of clue. London's afternoon and New York's morning now account for about 23% of all on-chain XRP volume, up from 14.3% a year earlier. The concentration held across all three XRPL trading venues: order books, automated market maker pools, and cross-currency payments.
Evernorth also reported roughly $900 million in RLUSD-XRP volume over six months. The company has a pending Nasdaq listing backed by Ripple.
But Evernorth conceded the limits of its own data. "Nothing about XRP closes at 5pm. But we're definitely seeing some rush hours," the firm noted.
That rush-hour pattern hints at institutional participation, but it's not proof. Public ledger records show transaction timing and volume, not identities. So the institutional-demand framing remains circumstantial.
For now, the market is left with two irreconcilable wave counts and a ledger that can't say who's trading. The next concrete test is whether XRP can hold above $1 on a weekly close. If it slips below, Dark Defender's Wave 5 thesis is dead. If it holds, the bears may have to wait for a different setup.
