The recent pullback in XRP appears to be more about liquidations and broader market jitters than large holders dumping their bags, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant contributor Pelin Ay. Despite XRP slipping toward $1.14, whale activity on Binance — a key gauge of potential sell-side supply — has actually cooled off. The report suggests that if anything, whales are sitting on their hands, not rushing for the exits.
Where the selling isn't coming from
Ay looked at large XRP inflows to Binance, specifically transfers above 1 million XRP. After XRP approached the $3 area last year, those big deposits fell off sharply. The analyst notes that the current chart lacks the sudden spikes in the 100K–1M and 1M+ XRP cohorts that usually flash a warning before a major drop. In other words, the on-chain signature of aggressive whale distribution just isn't there.
“The current sell-off lacks the on-chain signature of deep capitulation,” Ay argued, pointing to the absence of unusually large XRP amounts rushing to exchanges. That doesn't mean XRP is out of the woods — but the selling pressure isn't coming from the big guys.
What the Binance data says about supply
In exchange-flow analysis, rising inflows are read as potential sell-side supply; falling inflows signal reduced pressure. Since XRP's 2025 peak, the volume of tokens hitting Binance from large addresses has been trending down. Ay's take: large holders haven't been sending coins at the same intensity as earlier market phases. That makes the current drop look more like a leveraged flush than a wholesale capituation.
XRP was trading at $1.1444 at the time of the article, down significantly from its highs. The broader market has been weak, and leverage positions across crypto have taken a hit. The data suggests that once that leverage clears, there may be less standing in the way of a recovery.
The path back to $1.80–2.00
If Binance inflows stay low — especially in the 1M+ XRP band — selling supply will dry up further. That, combined with any pick-up in demand, could make it easier for XRP to return to the $1.8–2.0 region, according to the analysis. But it's not automatic: the report hinges on that demand materializing. For now, the on-chain picture doesn't show whales adding fuel to the fire, which at least removes one major risk.
The next question is whether the broader market can stabilize long enough for that reduced supply to matter. XRP's fate may depend less on whales and more on whether leveraged traders stop getting liquidated first.
