XRP is stuck in a technical compression pattern that could resolve either way, but the clock is ticking on a key support level. Analyst Egrag Crypto identified a descending broadening wedge on higher-timeframe charts, giving the pattern a 57% probability of breaking to the upside and 43% chance of more downside. For now, the token sits at $1.36 — below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day exponential moving averages — and has been sliding since the start of the year after its July 2025 peak at $3.65.
The wedge and what it means
A descending broadening wedge is usually a reversal pattern, but its wide swings can shake out traders on both sides. Egrag Crypto notes that if XRP reclaims and holds above $3, the expansion targets run from $7 to $11. That would require a weekly or monthly close above $2.65 to $3 first — a long way from current levels.
Why $1.11 matters
The critical support is $1.11. Lose that, and Egrag sees a potential 70% flush down to $0.32. That's not a forecast — it's a technical trigger level. XRP has already lost its EMA20 ($1.391), EMA50 ($1.404), and EMA200 ($1.684), which means the short-term trend is firmly bearish. Any bounce from here needs to break back above those averages just to stabilize.
The CLARITY Act as a catalyst
On the legislative side, the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 and now awaits a floor vote in the full Senate. If passed, analysts estimate it could unlock $4 billion to $8 billion in ETF inflows into XRP. That kind of demand would be a major shift — but the bill still has to make it through the Senate and the House, and the timeline isn't clear.
What needs to happen
For bulls, the checklist is simple: reclaim $3 on a weekly closing basis, or at least get back above the EMA200 at $1.684 to show momentum is shifting. Without that, the $1.11 floor is the only line in the sand. The Senate floor vote on the CLARITY Act is the next concrete event to watch — it could provide the narrative catalyst that price action alone hasn't delivered so far.
