XRP briefly touched the key $1 support level during this week’s sell-off, and a closely watched technical indicator just flashed a signal seen only four times in 13 years. The cryptocurrency’s monthly Relative Strength Index, or RSI, dropped to about 41.6 — a reading analysts describe as a deep oversold level and the lowest ever recorded for the asset.
What the RSI has signaled before
The monthly RSI has fallen to this extreme only four times previously, and each instance marked the start of a major rally. In 2017, 2020, and again in 2022, the same setup led to gains ranging from 1,000% to 60,000%. But there’s a catch. Those explosive moves happened when XRP was trading at very low price levels — below $0.01 in 2017. A similar percentage gain from today’s price would be mathematically unrealistic because the base is far higher.
A more plausible target
Given current conditions, a more realistic recovery target is reclaiming XRP’s cycle high of $3.65 — roughly a 3x move from where it’s trading now. That kind of climb would likely take one to two years and assumes favorable market sentiment overall. Even if the price has already bottomed, the full rally could stretch into 2027. A flat price through the summer wouldn’t necessarily break the historical pattern.
What it would take for $5 or beyond
Reaching levels like $5 or higher would require more than just technical RSI strength. Fundamental catalysts would need to kick in — things like passage of the CLARITY Act or expanded demand for XRP exchange-traded funds. Without policy moves or institutional inflows, the chart alone probably won’t push prices much past the old high.
For now, traders are watching whether $1 holds as support again. The next big test may come if the broader crypto market sees another leg down. The RSI signal is loud, but history shows that loud signals sometimes need a long patience.
