The pain for XRP holders keeps getting worse. The token is retesting support near $1.33 amid broad market volatility, and on-chain data shows the average active trader is down 47% over the past 30 days, according to Santiment. That's pushed the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to its lowest point since December 2020 — a level that historically preceded strong rebounds, though nothing is guaranteed.
47% under water
The 30-day MVRV reading flags extreme undervaluation and rare fear among traders. The metric compares the current market price to the average price at which coins last moved; when it drops this low, it typically means short-term holders are sitting on heavy losses and are more likely to sell out of frustration. Over the past four months, XRP hasn't been able to break above $1.65 on the 4-hour chart — a level that now marks the first real hurdle to any bullish shift.
Analyst sees more downside ahead
Technical analyst CasiTrades expects a final flush before the bottom is in. The prediction calls for a drawdown to lower macro supports at $1.10 and then $0.87. That would represent another double-digit percentage drop from current levels. The first sign of a turnaround, according to the analyst, would be XRP reclaiming $1.65 and turning it into support — something it hasn't done for months.
Why some still hold on
Despite the price retracement — which has wiped out more than half of the token's market value since last summer — a core of patient investors remains. Their optimism is anchored in three narratives that haven't gone away: regulatory progress, the ongoing speculation around a spot XRP ETF, and Ripple's steady push for enterprise adoption. Those factors aren't moving the needle in a down market, but they keep the long-term thesis alive for now.
The next concrete event to watch is whether XRP can reclaim $1.65 on a sustained basis. Until then, the path of least resistance still points lower.
