XRP whales accumulated 71 million tokens over the past week while the token traded near $1.36, even as the broader crypto market dropped more than 5% this week. On-chain data shows XRP Ledger account-to-account payments climbing from under 1 million to 1.22 million by May 22, signaling growing real-world usage. Meanwhile, spot XRP ETF products attracted over $65 million in inflows last week and another $22.04 million in net daily inflows this week — a clear vote of confidence from institutional investors.
Whale buying and network activity
Large holders are clearly accumulating. The 71 million token scoop over the past week is notable given the market-wide selloff. Network activity backs up the bullish signal: account-to-account payments on the XRP Ledger hit 1.22 million by May 22, up from under 1 million earlier this month. That jump suggests more users are actually moving XRP, not just hodling it.
ETF inflows hit $65M as StanChart cuts target
ETF flows tell a different story than the spot price. XRP spot ETFs pulled in $65 million last week and another $22 million so far this week. Yet Standard Chartered just revised its year-end 2026 target for XRP from $8 down to $2.80, citing what it called 'ETF fatigue.' That's a steep cut — but still far above current levels. At $1.36, the token would need to roughly double to hit $2.80.
CLARITY Act and rate cuts on the radar
Two catalysts could move the needle. The first is the CLARITY Act, which still needs Senate approval. Analysts see it as the most decisive regulatory catalyst still pending for the whole crypto space. The second is the Federal Reserve. Rate cuts expected in the second half of 2026 could accelerate institutional rotation into digital assets, XRP included.
Claude's three scenarios for XRP this year lay out the range. The bullish case puts XRP at $5-$8. The moderate, most probable scenario lands at $2-$3.50. The bearish scenario bottoms out at $0.75-$1.50. With the token trading near $1.36, the market is currently pricing in the low end of moderate or the high end of bearish.
The 2.6 billion token question
One overhang: up to 2.6 billion XRP could be released from escrow before year-end. That's roughly 2.4% of the total supply hitting the market, potentially creating selling pressure. It's the kind of supply event that can cap rallies, especially if ETF inflows slow and the broader market stays weak.
What happens next depends largely on the Senate calendar. The CLARITY Act vote is the next concrete milestone. Until then, the moderate scenario — $2 to $3.50 — looks like the most probable outcome, but the escrow release and ETF fatigue warnings mean traders will watch every inflow report.
