XRP traders moved more coins off exchanges this week than at any point in the past two months, with the token's withdrawal transaction share climbing to a two-month high. The shift comes as XRP trades at $1.28, down 0.49% on October 25, and with the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision set for October 28. Analysts are watching for a burst of price volatility in the days surrounding the announcement.
What the withdrawal data shows
The withdrawal transaction share measures how much of XRP's on-chain activity is tied to coins leaving exchanges rather than moving onto them. A rising share suggests holders are pulling tokens into self-custody, which can tighten the supply available for immediate sale on spot markets. The metric has now reached its highest level since late August, though the exact percentage wasn't disclosed in the data reviewed.
That kind of exchange flow doesn't move prices on its own. But it changes the backdrop for the Fed meeting. Fewer coins sitting on exchanges means thinner sell-side liquidity, and thin liquidity tends to amplify whatever move comes next — up or down.
Why the Fed decision matters for crypto
The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on October 28. Crypto assets have been sensitive to rate expectations throughout the year, and XRP is no exception. A decision that shifts the expected path of borrowing costs can ripple through risk assets quickly, particularly in tokens that trade around the clock and carry lighter order books than major equities.
The timing is awkward for anyone holding XRP through the weekend. The Fed speaks on Tuesday, and crypto markets don't close. There's no gap to absorb the news — just continuous trading into whatever the central bank says.
The $1.28 level in focus
XRP's price on October 25 sat at $1.28, a modest 0.49% decline for the day. That's a quiet move on its own. But combined with the withdrawal trend and the looming Fed announcement, analysts expect the calm to give way to sharper swings this week. The $1.28 mark is likely to serve as a reference point: holding above it would suggest the withdrawal-driven supply squeeze is doing some work, while a break below could signal that macro pressure is overriding on-chain signals.
It's worth separating the two forces here. Exchange withdrawals are a slow-moving, structural indicator. The Fed decision is a single event with an immediate price impact. They don't cancel each other out, but they operate on different clocks.
What to watch before Tuesday
Two things matter between now and the Fed announcement. First, whether the withdrawal share keeps climbing or stalls — a sustained rise would reinforce the idea that holders are positioning for a longer hold, not a quick trade. Second, how XRP behaves around $1.28 as liquidity thins. A drift higher on light volume would be less convincing than a firm hold with steady activity.
Analysts flagged the potential for increased volatility, and the setup supports that view. The withdrawal data and the Fed calendar are pointing in the same direction: less available supply on exchanges, more macro uncertainty in the price. For traders, the week ends with a clear marker — the Fed's statement on October 28 — and a market that will be repricing XRP in real time as it lands.
