The XRP/BTC trading pair has been printing lower highs for nearly a decade, and one analyst says the trend isn't letting up anytime soon. Crypto analyst Chart Nerd warns XRP could fall another 59% to 62% against Bitcoin, targeting the 0.0000071 to 0.0000065 range on the pair. The call comes as XRP’s dollar-denominated rally fizzled out this month, failing to hold above a key moving average while Bitcoin surged 38% over the past three months.
A decade of declining peaks
The pattern is hard to miss. The XRP/BTC pair peaked at 0.000097 in January 2019, then hit 0.0000426 in November 2020. Each subsequent high was lower: 0.0000390 in May 2021, 0.0000297 in July 2023, and most recently 0.0000257 in January 2026. That January peak is this year’s top so far — and it’s roughly a quarter of the 2019 high. Chart Nerd notes that buyers have stepped in near historical outperformance zones before, but each bounce has produced a weaker high.
XRP’s rally stalls
In dollar terms, XRP actually looked decent earlier this year. It rose 37% from a February low of $1.12 to a May high of $1.54. That move, however, couldn’t hold above the 20-month exponential moving average — a technical level traders watch as a gauge of long-term momentum. Once XRP slipped back below that line, the recovery narrative lost steam. Meanwhile, Bitcoin climbed from a yearly low of $60,000 to $82,800 over the same three-month stretch. When major tokens like XRP trail Bitcoin during a rally, Chart Nerd says it typically signals that capital is sticking with Bitcoin rather than rotating into altcoins.
Another analyst flags downside risk
It’s not just the XRP/BTC pair that looks shaky. Analyst Ali Martinez flagged a possible drop for XRP to the $0.73 region if selling pressure continues. That would represent a decline of more than 50% from current levels — though Martinez’s analysis is focused on the dollar-denominated chart rather than the Bitcoin pair. The two views converge on the same message: momentum is pointing lower for XRP in the near term.
What’s ahead for the pair
Chart Nerd expects XRP to continue lagging Bitcoin through most of 2026. The longer-term outlook is brighter — higher prices are expected eventually — but for now, the path of least resistance for XRP/BTC appears to be down. The next concrete test will be whether the pair can hold above 0.0000071, the upper end of Chart Nerd’s target zone. If that level breaks, the 0.0000065 area comes into play. No timeline was given for the move, but the analyst’s track record of calling lower highs makes the forecast hard to ignore.
