XRP’s relative strength against NVIDIA has been sliding for years, and a recurring technical pattern is flashing a familiar warning. Since 2021, every time XRP has managed to close a week above its long-term descending resistance line against the chipmaker, the digital asset has fallen a median 39% over the following twelve weeks. With the ratio now testing that same line again, traders are watching closely.
The pattern since 2021
The math is blunt. Of the four weekly closes above that declining resistance line since 2021, only one showed a gain after four weeks. None were positive at twelve weeks, and only one had recovered by twenty-six weeks. For context, the base rate for any random twelve-week period — no break — is a loss of roughly 2%. That makes the post-break pattern significantly worse. To reach the resistance line again, XRP would need to rise about 459% against NVIDIA based on the seven-day chart — a long shot, but the pattern is on the table.
Not all comparisons are equal
The same kind of falling relative-strength line exists for XRP against Bitcoin, but not against the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, or gold. And the results differ sharply. A break against Bitcoin preceded only a small 5% rise, whereas a break against NVIDIA lined up with the 39% plunge. That suggests the NVIDIA pair carries specific weight — possibly tied to the market’s view of XRP as a risk-on asset exposed to institutional flows.
What on-chain data showed
On-chain flows from mid-2025 back up the caution. Near XRP’s peak above $3 in July 2025, exchange net position turned sharply positive — meaning coins were moving onto exchanges, a classic sign of selling pressure. Around July 17, the XRP hodler net position flipped negative and stayed that way through August, showing long-term holders were reducing their bags. That kind of supply shift doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
Recent signs of a shift
More recent on-chain flows have turned more constructive. Coins are leaving exchanges again, and long-term holders have started accumulating. That could set up a different outcome if the resistance line breaks again — but the historical track record is hard to ignore. The next weekly close will show whether XRP can hold below that line, or if the pattern is about to repeat.
