XRP’s 30-day MVRV ratio has dropped to approximately -47%, the steepest negative reading since December 2020. That means the average trader who bought XRP in the past month is now down 47%. The 365-day MVRV ratio is also deep in the red at around -36%. Data from Santiment Intelligence labels the current level an “extreme undervalued zone” and an “opportunity” zone, though the firm warns that weak MVRV readings alone don’t guarantee a reversal.
What the MVRV Ratio Shows
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares an asset’s current market price to the average price paid by all holders. When it turns deeply negative, it suggests many holders are underwater and panic selling may be exhausted. Historically, XRP’s steepest negative MVRV levels have preceded strong rebounds. The last time the 30-day ratio touched -47% was in late 2020, just before a multi-month rally that carried the token above $1.70.
At the time of the report, XRP traded at $1.33. The token has lost more than half its market value since summer 2024, when regulatory optimism and ETF speculation helped push prices higher.
Santiment’s Take on the Data
Santiment Intelligence, which tracks on-chain metrics, described the current MVRV as an “extreme undervalued zone” and an “opportunity” zone. But the firm also cautioned that a low MVRV reading doesn’t automatically mean prices will bounce. “Weak MVRV readings alone do not guarantee a reversal,” Santiment notes, “but often signal limited downside risk relative to potential upside.” That leaves traders in a familiar spot: watching for signs that selling pressure has truly dried up before committing fresh capital.
Long-Term Factors Beyond the Metric
Despite the brutal price decline, long-term investors remain optimistic. They point to a string of regulatory progress in key markets, ongoing speculation about a spot XRP exchange-traded fund, and Ripple’s growing adoption narrative. Those factors helped fuel the summer 2024 rally and are still cited by bagholders as reasons to stay in. The question is whether the MVRV ratio’s extreme reading will be enough to draw in new buyers at these levels.
What Comes Next
For now, the market is waiting to see if the -47% MVRV level marks a bottom or just another stop on the way down. Santiment’s data suggests the risk of further sharp declines is lower than the chance of a recovery, but the firm stops short of calling a bottom. Traders will be watching XRP’s price action around the $1.30 area, along with any fresh news on the ETF front or regulatory rulings that could shift sentiment. The next big test: whether buyers step in to defend the current price or let it drift lower into uncharted territory.
