XRP is hovering around $1.00 in mid-August, still down about 72% from its all-time high near $3.65 set in July 2025. Daily trading volume has ticked up to $728M from $680M the day before, but the token's near-term path looks increasingly uncertain to the traders putting money on it.
Claude AI's year-end call
Claude AI, the language model that has become a go-to for some crypto traders, projects XRP will end 2026 at around $1.20, with more probability mass below $1.50 than above. The model points to technical weakness: XRP sits below its 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages, and its RSI is hovering between neutral and bearish. There are no confirmed catalysts, only pending ones like the CLARITY Act and a broader risk-on rotation in crypto.
What prediction markets say
Kalshi's annual contract on XRP closing above $1.50 by year-end has climbed from 18% to 23%, but that still leaves a lot of room for disappointment. A separate Kalshi market gives a 59% probability that XRP will drop below $1 before 2027. Shorter-dated contracts show roughly 66% odds of XRP closing above $1.35 in the near term, falling to 43% for the $1.37 threshold. On Polymarket, the probability of XRP setting a new all-time high before January 2027 has fallen from 41% to 14%, while odds of reaching $3 sit near 23%. Only 10% of Kalshi bettors price in XRP hitting $2.50 by year-end.
What could flip the bearish view
Claude AI says sustained ETF inflows breaking above roughly $2 million a week, XRP reclaiming its 100-day EMA, or a genuine macro risk-on move would change its outlook. The downside case: if $0.99 support fails decisively, $0.85–$0.95 is plausible, but a collapse toward $0.50 is unlikely due to liquidity and ETF structural demand. For now, the $1 level is the line traders are watching, and the next few weeks will show whether it holds or gives way.
