XRP’s 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has fallen to 0.38, the lowest reading since 2024, signaling that losses now far outpace profits. The metric, which peaked at 50 last year, has completely inverted from a period of heavy profit-taking to one dominated by realized losses. The data comes as XRP’s price dropped nearly 15% over the past two weeks, hitting its weakest level since November 2024.
Why the ratio matters
The Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio tracks whether holders are cashing out in the green or locking in red ink. A ratio below 1 means losses exceed profits. At 0.38, for every dollar of losses, only 38 cents in profit are being taken. That’s a dramatic swing from the 50 reading seen in 2025 — a period when speculative euphoria drove massive profit-taking. Glassnode, the analytics firm behind the data, described the collapse in organic transaction demand as near-total since the speculative peak.
Transaction fees evaporate
The drop in network activity is also visible in transaction fees. The 90-day average of total fees on the XRP ledger fell from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to just 500 XRP — a 91.5% decline. According to Glassnode, the fee collapse is the direct result of a near-total contraction in organic transaction demand after the speculative frenzy faded. Fewer people are using the network for meaningful transfers, and that’s reflected in the fee data.
Price drop and historical patterns
XRP’s price has retraced about 71% from its July high, and the current correction has lasted roughly 350 days. Analyst ChartNerd noted that XRP’s historical bear markets stretched 400 to 790 days with losses of 85% to 96%, meaning this downturn could still have room to run. ChartNerd also pointed out that XRP closed below its 200-week simple moving average last week. In prior cycles, a structural bottom formed 8 to 29 weeks after the first such close below the SMA.
Support zone and path to recovery
Analyst Ali Martinez is watching a rising trendline that has marked major turning points since 2018. He identified support between $0.70 and $0.90, a zone XRP is currently approaching. If that level holds, Martinez said a rally back to $3 is realistic. Breaking above the $3.30 resistance, he added, could open the door to macro targets of $8 to $13. Whether the support zone holds or breaks will likely determine whether XRP’s price finds a floor or slides further toward the deeper retracements ChartNerd described.
