The American Gaming Association expects bettors to wager $29.5 billion with regulated sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season. That would be the first season without meaningful growth since the Supreme Court struck down the federal betting ban in 2018.
The trade group attributes the flat betting season to prediction markets, which it calls "backdoor sports betting."
A First Since 2018
Since the Supreme Court's 2018 decision, sports betting has expanded rapidly across the country. States have legalized it, and billions of dollars have flowed through licensed sportsbooks each NFL season. But the AGA's projection for 2026 suggests that growth has hit a wall.
The $29.5 billion figure matches the previous season's handle, according to the AGA. That would be the first time the NFL betting total didn't climb year over year since the court ruling opened the door for legal wagering.
The 'Backdoor' Threat
The AGA points to prediction markets as the reason for the stall. These platforms allow users to bet on outcomes like game winners or player performances, but they operate outside the regulated sportsbook system. The trade group calls this "backdoor sports betting," arguing it bypasses the consumer protections and tax revenue that come with licensed wagering.
Prediction markets have grown in popularity in recent years, and the AGA says they're siphoning off bets that would otherwise go to regulated sportsbooks. The group hasn't released specific numbers on how much handle has shifted, but it's clear the industry sees these platforms as a growing competitor.
The 2026 NFL season is still ahead, and the AGA's projection will be tested against actual betting data once the season wraps up. Whether prediction markets continue to eat into sportsbook handle is a question the industry will be watching closely.
