The UK's Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has warned that unlicensed betting operators could pull in up to $1.09 billion in Premier League wagers this season. That figure, the industry body claims, could climb to about $1.36 billion once a planned betting tax increase takes effect in April 2027.
But the BGC hasn't said how it arrived at these numbers. It released no methodology and named no source, leaving the claim hanging on the trade body's authority alone.
The scale of the leak
The BGC represents the UK's regulated betting industry, which includes major high-street and online operators. The group's estimate is part of a push to highlight the growing "gray market" of unlicensed bookmakers — sites that take bets from UK players without a Gambling Commission license. These sites don't pay tax, don't follow advertising rules, and don't offer player protection.
The Premier League is the most watched football league in the world, and betting on it is huge. If the BGC's numbers are right, nearly a billion dollars of wagers are already slipping through the net. The estimate appears to cover the entire 2025-2026 season, though the BGC didn't specify whether it includes both pre-match and in-play bets, or whether it factors in the money staked by UK bettors only.
The tax increase threat
The second, larger figure is tied to a scheduled increase in betting tax that lands in April 2027. The BGC argues that when the tax goes up, licensed operators will have to pass the extra cost to customers through lower odds or higher fees. That makes unlicensed sites more attractive, because they don't carry any tax burden at all.
The logic is simple: if the legal market becomes pricier, more bettors will drift to the unlicensed operators. The BGC's warning to the government is that raising the tax could end up shrinking the regulated market and the tax revenue that comes with it — a net loss for the state's coffers.
A claim without a methodology
The problem is that the BGC hasn't published any research or data to back its estimate. There's no explanation of how it counted the unlicensed wagers, no mention of a survey, a data provider, or a model. The numbers simply appear in a statement.
That's not unusual for industry groups when they want to push a point. But it also makes the claim hard to verify. If the BGC wants to persuade the government to delay or scrap the tax increase, it may need to show its work. Without a clear basis, the figure could be dismissed as guesswork.
Regulators and independent analysts have raised questions before about industry-funded estimates that come with no breakdown. The BGC's own members — the licensed operators — stand to gain if the tax increase is dropped, so the claim serves their interest.
What it might mean for the market
If the BGC's numbers are even close to accurate, they would suggest the unlicensed market is already a serious problem. That would mean the state is losing out on millions in tax, and bettors are gambling with no safeguards — no age checks, no self-exclusion tools, no dispute process.
The BGC's message to the government is that raising taxes will make this worse. But the actual response depends on how many bettors would really switch. Some will stay with the licensed operators despite the higher price. Others may not even notice the tax increase. The BGC is betting that the tax hike will push enough people to the unlicensed market to make its warning credible.
The tax increase is still a few years away, but the BGC is already calling on the government to reconsider. There's no date set for the BGC to release its methodology, and the government hasn't responded to the claim. The question now is whether the BGC will produce the evidence to back its numbers — or let the estimate stand as a number without a source.
